Banking growth may be dampened

KARACHI (Agencies): Growth rates, credit risk and earnings of the banking system are likely to remain under strain in future due to constrained economic environment both at home and global fronts. According to the State Bank of Pakistan's Quarterly Performance Review of the Banking System for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 released on Saturday. Pakistan's banking system effectively coped with several challenges emanated from economic slowdown, both at home and abroad, due to strong resilience built over the years and effective regulatory and supervisory regime.

The present tough economic environment will also heighten the credit risk and affect the earnings due to increased loan loss charges and constrained incomes. The system is expected to remain profitable in the coming quarters, though this phenomenon may not be widely shared across the market players. Though the concerns about the solvency of top banks of the world are weighing on the investor confidence across the globe, the banks in Pakistan are still maintaining their resilience, the report said. The strength of the banking system largely comes from the prudent regulatory and supervisory regime strengthened risk management and governance standards in banks as well as the improved solvency and earning capacity of banks, it added. The report pointed out that asset base of the banking system grew 2.6 percent over the quarter to reach Rs 5,653 billion, well supplemented by 3.6 percent and 7 percent growth in deposit and shareholders' equity, respectively.

Sensex slips almost 5 per cent, global markets in red

The 30-scrip Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) sensitive index (Sensex), which opened at 10,036.8 points on Monday, ended at 9,568.14 - a fall of 480.35 points or 4.78 per cent from its previous close on Friday

Indian equities markets turned southwards on Monday, aping their global peers, and marked an end to last week's rally that saw a key index breach the psychologically important 10,000-mark and gain over 12 per cent.

Of the 13 sectoral indices on the exchange, the indices for banking, metal and realty stocks ended in the red, signifying heavy selling in such stocks, while healthcare and consumer durables stocks saw selling.
There were only two gainers on the 30-scrip composite Sensex: NTPC, up 0.8 percent at Rs 183.50, and Sun Pharma, up 0.25 per cent at Rs 1,082.20.

European markets, which came online before Indian bourses ended trade, were in the red with the FTSE in Britain trading 2.18 per cent lower than its previous close.

Oil Stockpiles Rise More Than Expected; Gasoline Demand Improves

Release Explanation: This is the DOE (Department of Energy) Crude Oil Inventory, EIA (Energy Information Administration) Weekly Oil Inventory. It measures changes in crude oil production, refinery inputs and utilization, production by product; current inventory level of crude and related products as well as an estimate of how many days of supply is currently available. Increasing or decreasing inventory figures leads to an adjustment of price action that in time will spread throughout the economy. Currently, it is estimated that for every one percent of GDP growth, oil consumption increases by one quarter to one third of a percent, so oil inventories must be able to increase along with the economy or another gasoline shortage may occur. It is also worth noting that at an average price of $75.00 a barrel, the U.S. spends one billion dollars a day on crude.

Trade Desk Thoughts: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased 3.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 356.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Demand for total products declined sharply compared to the same period a year ago, although gasoline demand improved" said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. "The slight improvement in demand for gasoline from a year ago could be a positive for oil prices."

Australia shares gain 1 pct; banks lead, Rio bounces

By Mette Fraende and Denny Thomas
SYDNEY, March 26 (Reuters) - Australian shares rose 1 percent
on Thursday, rising for a fourth straight day, with financials
buoyed by hopes of a revival in global growth on the back of
recent U.S. government efforts to ease the credit crisis.
Global miner Rio Tinto Ltd turned positive, ending
with a 1.4 percent gain, after its chief financial officer said
Rio could sell more assets and reschedule debt if Chinalco's
proposed $19.5 billion deal with Rio is not approved. .
A late rally in U.S. stocks on the back of unexpectedly
strong housing and durable goods data also helped supported
sentiment, traders said. 'Ever so slowly there's the smallest little current of less
than disastrous news coming out,' said Peter Wright, dealer at
Burrell & Co.
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index finished 37.3 points
higher at 3,646.6, based on the latest available data. The index
has risen 9 percent so far in March.

WORLD FOREX: Dollar Generally Higher, But Pound Rallies

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar is generally higher Tuesday morning as U.S. stock futures suggested a sluggish equity market, enabling the U.S. dollar to gain back some ground lost in its sharp retreat last week.
One exception to the general strengthen in the dollar was the British pound, which rallied sharply after unexpectedly strong inflation data in the U.K.
But the general theme in currency markets was the U.S. dollar's recovery from some of the losses it sustained after last Wednesday when the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it was expanding its quantitative easing program.
"I think this is the ongoing fading of the negative impact of the QE announcement last week, which saw a very sharp knee-jerk dollar selloff," said Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London.
In morning trading Tuesday the pound is at $1.4693 from $1.4585 late Monday after reaching a high at $1.4781, according to EBS. The euro fell to $1.3530 from $1.3645 but rose to Y132.91 from Y132.26. At one stage it hit a new five-month high at Y134.50.
The dollar had pushed ahead to Y98.23 from Y96.91 late Monday in New York, according to EBS. The dollar is up at CHF1.1289 from CHF1.1239.

Power Crisis: Electricity shortfall reaches 3,500MW

LAHORE: Water availability at Tarbela and Mangla Dam continued to be precarious severely hitting the hydel power generation, while electricity shortfall in the country has shot up to 3500 megawatt further aggravating the vexed load shedding across the country that persisted unabated. Pepco sources told that there was no possibility of load shedding mellowing down in the days to come, Sources also said that presently the source of power supply mostly depended on thermal generation, which amounted to 8500MW to 9000MW, while the daily demand for power stood at 12500MW.In this backdrop, the domestic, commercial and industrial customers are facing gruesome unannounced prolonged load shedding, when the government is resorting to load shedding for double the announced duration.The people attached to the trade and industry have demanded from the government to come up with some tangible solution of the power crisis, otherwise, industrial production feared coming to a halt.

Inflation rate would be brought down to 10pc: Sahukat Tareen

Finance Advisor, Shaukat Tareen in a meeting with the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) president, Dr. Ahmad Ali told this here. The meeting focused Pakistan economic situation and IDB investments in different development projects.

DUBAI: Finance Advisor, Sahukat Tareen has said that Pakistan has succeeded in controlling the inflation rate, which would be brought down by June to 10 percent from 25.

He said that stock exchange in Pakistan has been restored and the index was ranging between 4800 to 6000 opoints, while the current account deficit has been reduced substantially and the forex reserves situation was satisfactory. Besides inflation rate has come down due to increase in bank rate and the economy was moving ahead towards stabilization. Shaukat Tareen on this occasion urged upon the IDB to enhance its present loan allocation of $500 million to $1000 million so that it could be used for poverty reduction in Pakistan. He said that a steering committee would be constituted for this purpose, through which, donors agencies members could be monitoring the poverty alleviation program.

Import of food and petroleum products still growing

KARACHI: The import curbing policies have started yielding results as the imports decline by 1.52 percent during the first eight months of current fiscal year providing a sigh of relief for the economic managers.All the import categories recorded negative trends except for petroleum and food group. The decreasing trend in the imports is an encouraging sign for the country’ s external trade sector, which has been experiencing high import growth in the last several years putting pressure on the foreign exchange reserves and dampening Rupees value.. The slowdown in growth of imports is a respite for the country at this critical juncture when Pakistan is attempting to buildup its forex reserves through various channels including loans from IMF. Though the slowdown in the import growth started few months back, the clear picture surfaced in February when the negative growth was recorded in the various categories except for petroleum and food, which are still registering increase in import albeit the sharp reduction in their global prices after hitting record levels previous years.

The import of petroleum products rose by 9.16 percent to $6.921 billion during the first eight months of current financial year over $6.340 billion in the corresponding period of previous year. The import of petroleum manufactured was up by almost 15 percent and crude imports grew by 2.36 percent during this period.

Forex engine Burning Out

The lubricant for forex engine operations is set to be burn out with a State Bank move possibly taking away decent market liquidity.
Last week, with the two documents 1819 and 1820/NHNN-QLNH, the State Bank effectively banned forex option services from March 23 and said it would accelerate inspections on banks’ use of other derivatives to buy or sell dollars at rates higher than the exchange rate limit.

A Vietcombank source said the supply of dollars for the banking system had dried up recently. “This shortage is not reflecting the real situation of the market. Exporters have lots of dollars but they don’t want to sell at the exchange rate limit. This means the exchange rate is proving ineffective in providing liquidity,” said the source.

In Vietnam, banks are allowed to trade the dollar 3 per cent either side of the daily-fixed official exchange rate known as the interbank rate. “Over the last few weeks, greenback buying from corporates has risen and local banks had no way other than offering better rates to get the dollar from exporters via derivatives tools such as options,” the Vietcombank representative added.

Currency options contracts give the right, not the obligation, to buy or sell a specific quantity of one foreign currency in exchange for another at a fixed price. The buyer of a currency option then pays a premium to the seller. According to an Indochina Capital financial expert, the market was running on a dollar shortage and commercial banks had to find ways to source dollars, this means greenback that the State Bank pumped out was not enough.

KeyTo Success

Forex Online Trading Course

Are you looking for a highly successful Forex online trading course? This trillion dollar market is the largest volume trading market in the world, with money changing hands between a wide variety of participants every day that includes large financial institutions, investment firms and small investors like you and me.

Most of the currency rate movements are caused by the large financial players due to changes in demand and supply in different currencies. As these transactions are being made, smaller investors like institutions and single investors can profit from the activity by speculating in the direction of movement of the currency rate.1. Signing Up for a Forex Online Trading CourseBefore you can expect to make any money from the currencies market, you should get a good education first by joining a Forex online trading course. These types of courses will give you a good idea of how the markets work in general and help you realize the dangers as well as the potential profits that can be made trading the Forex.2. Profiting with Forex Automated Trading SoftwareIf you have absolutely no experience but you want to start making money immediately, you can choose to download automated software that can start making money automatically while you learn how it trades the market.3. How to Start Profiting from the Forex Market?You will need to sign up for a live account to start making real money with Forex trading. If you have no idea of how your trading system works yet, you should get a demo account to practice on it and get familiar with it first.4. How is Forex Online Trading Different from Trading other Financial Markets like the Stock Market?The currencies market is much more liquid and provides much more margin for profit due to increased leverage. It is extremely liquid compared to the stock market, and you can be sure that your trades will be successfully executed as there are always buyers and sellers, unlike certain stocks that can be very illiquid.

India -- Don't Forget the BlackBerry

As mobile subscribers in India march through 350 million, many people are asking me where future growth will come from and when the market will slow.
First of all, let me do some crystal ball gazing and forecast what is in store three years from now. Standard Chartered is forecasting 697 million subscribers in India by March 2012. In other words the market will double again over the next three years. This will be impressive growth.

This intense competition amongst the twelve or thirteen national operators will undoubtedly fuel subscriber growth further. The rate of market growth will inevitably slow, but not until FY 2013 in our opinion.

This is fine if you are interested in a new subscriber base offering one or two dollars per month, but building a profitable business case on this basis is challenging to say the least.
My view is that we shouldn't ignore the metros and some of the A circles for future growth. And average revenue per user (ARPU) levels here will be much more attractive.

Dollar extends gains vs yen after Bernanke remarks

The dollar rose to a session high of 96.26 right after Bernanke's comments, but pared gains and was last 1.7 percent higher at 96.09. (Reporting by Vivianne Rodrigues; Editing by Leslie Adler)

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - The dollar extended gains on Friday versus the Japanese yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on the U.S. financial system.

UPDATE 1-China drafts rules to ease banks' FX conversions

The official Shanghai Securities News quoted unnamed sources as saying the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) was seeking banks' comments on the draft rules, which would allow conversions without a complicated regulatory approval process.

China has drafted rules making it easier for banks to convert foreign currency holdings into other foreign currencies, official media reported on Friday, a move which some dealers said might eventually lead to a cut in U.S. dollar holdings at Chinese banks.

Banks can already trade foreign currencies in China's spot foreign exchange market without regulatory approval. But current rules impose strict restrictions, including an approval requirement, on conversion of banks' foreign exchange capital bases from one currency to another.

Rupee gains on hopes of lower US rates

“The rupee’s bias is clearly upward,” said Sudarshan Bhatt, chief currency trader at state-owned Corporation Bank in Mumbai. “Markets are rallying globally, showing the Fed’s bond purchase announcement has boosted investor confidence.”

Mumbai: The rupee strengthened the most in four months on speculation the US Federal Reserve’s plan to buy $1 trillion (Rs50.8 trillion) of bonds will drive interest rates lower, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
The currency climbed to a three-week high versus the dollar as the Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark index, the Sensex, closed above 9,000 for the first time in a month.

The rupee also gained on optimism economic stimulus measures unveiled by the government and central bank in recent months will help revive growth. The government has announced additional spending while the Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates five times since September.

Is It a Risky Business?

Is there any risk involved? Yes. Everything has risk whether it is involve time, life, money, etc. Risk unfortunately can not be avoided. No absolutely not, that’s impossible for everything. But as any other thing else you can minimize risk and increase profit, that’s how to make money.

feel so grateful and lucky to be able to trade forex full time. Not only is it fun, and I feel passionate about it, but it’s also monetarily rewarding, and it gives me freedom to do it from almost anywhere in the world. I hope to be able to share some of this luck and gratefulness with you. And truly from the bottom of my heart and my being, I am wishing you tremendous success and abundance in forex or any other business you do.

What Do I Need to Trade?

The first thing you need to trade is a broker. Register with any of them and they will provide you a software platform that equip with a list of currency pairs, graph, technical indicators free to use. The broker usually provides you free practices by providing virtual money for you to practice enhance your skills.

If you want to learn more about mainstream technical analysis tools, in my experience, the most honest person who teaches mainstream technical analysis in the best way is Peter Bain (Forex Mentor). Whether Peter trades himself, and whether Peter ever made money in forex is definitely questionable. But if you want to get good education and overview of many different mainstream technical analysis tools, I think Peter is good for that.

There are two schools of thought like in stocks about how to make money in forex trading. On one side you have the technical, which are basically charts and other statistical methods that used to try and guess the market. On the other side you have the fundamentals, which study things like countries domestic product, interest rates, economic output, etc. to try and forecast currency movements based on these criteria.

FOREX : what one needs to know

When starting to trade on the forex market, you ought to be aware of this market's specificity. The Forex market allows a trader to make profit when buying or selling. There is no commission per trade, but a spread between the buying and selling price. Familiarize with the basics. Wherever you invest, knowledge is vital.

What is Forex:

The Forex is the largest marketplace in the world with more than 1.8 trillion dollars changing hands daily and so making it one of the most attractive and lucrative markets.

How does the Forex work?

The forex market allows you to buy and sell currencies against each other and speculate on the differences in exchange rates.Making a transaction on the Forex Market is simple: the procedures are identical to that of any other market so switching to trading currencies is straightforward for most traders.

Audi TT R ABT

With the Abt Audi TT-R Abt Sportsline celebrated the most amazing motor sport victories in the season 2002. Hardly anyone was able to beat the Abt Audi TT-R. In nine of the ten DTM races at least one of the Abt pilots clinched a podium position, and at the end Laurent Aiello won the DTM championship in the yellow Abt Audi TT-R. Therefore it is no wonder that the Abt team from Kempten has a special relationship with “their” Audi TT and it is a fortunate coincidence that the second version of this sporty Audi model just appears on the market when the family enterprise celebrates its 110th company anniversary. At the same time, this happenstance means a challenge for Abt Sportsline - a challenge the team from Kempten meets by enhancing this car.

Pakistan Foreign Exchange

Pakistan’s foreign reserves hit an all-time high of $16.39 billion in the week that ended on Nov. 10. But they fell because of outflows from the stock market after President Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule on Nov. 3. Emergency rule was lifted on Dec. 15 but analysts said foreign investment is under pressure due to the tense political situation after the assassination of opposition leader Benezir.

KARACHI: Pakistan’ foreign exchange reserves fell by $19 million to $15.55 billion in the week that ended on Jan. 5, the central bank said on Friday.

Reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan fell to $13.27 billion from $13.50 billion a week earlier, while those held by commercial banks rose to $2.28 billion from $2.24 billion.

Central Bank intervenes in U.S. Dollar

The Central Bank of Turkey finally broke their silence after four days of rapid exchange rate increases. When the dollar reached the 1.8250 level yesterday, the Central Bank finally spoke out announcing it would begin to hold exchange sale tenders as of today. The Central Bank announced that they found the increase in the US dollar rate to be 'speculative' and therefore would begin to launch exchange rate sales tenders. The Central Bank emphasized, that it they are unsatisfied with the results from the tenders, they may turn to direct intervention in exchange sales. After the announcement, the dollar initially went down to 1.81, and then later to 1.80 as a result of the recovery experienced in the stock market.

After the dollar's record rise on Friday to 1.80 TL, yesterday a new record was broken when the dollar went on to surpass the 1.82 level, resulting in the Central Bank announcing plans to step in. The Central Bank of Turkey announced they plan to hold a 50 million US dollar foreign exchange tender. The response to the announcement was positive as later the dollar once again settled at the 1.80 level.