India -- Don't Forget the BlackBerry

As mobile subscribers in India march through 350 million, many people are asking me where future growth will come from and when the market will slow.
First of all, let me do some crystal ball gazing and forecast what is in store three years from now. Standard Chartered is forecasting 697 million subscribers in India by March 2012. In other words the market will double again over the next three years. This will be impressive growth.

This intense competition amongst the twelve or thirteen national operators will undoubtedly fuel subscriber growth further. The rate of market growth will inevitably slow, but not until FY 2013 in our opinion.

This is fine if you are interested in a new subscriber base offering one or two dollars per month, but building a profitable business case on this basis is challenging to say the least.
My view is that we shouldn't ignore the metros and some of the A circles for future growth. And average revenue per user (ARPU) levels here will be much more attractive.